Skip to main content

Update by Simon Michaux

Siv Jensen. Photo: Kjetil Ree
It's absurd these days seeing our financial minister Siv Jensen presenting the state budget for 2015. She talks with great enthusiasm about the glorious future of Norway and our children and grandchildren. I cannot remember to have seen a politician ever before so fanatically indoctrinated by The Religion of Progress. But after all she's representing a party with the idiotic name The Party of Progress or in Norwegian "Fremskrittspartiet".

Sometimes I wonder if our politicians and leaders are genetically manipulated by aliens to self-destruct our civilization, so that they can easily take over planet Earth when we are gone? At least, to listen to Siv Jensen and our current political leadership appears much more scary to me than any horror movie I can think about.

I want to repeat the last part of Michaux's update:
Current political leadership are engaging in squabbling over the dregs of what resources are left and maintaining the status quo. We are using the last of the easy to get resources, to do the equivalent of straightening bananas. All of this indifference does suggest a certain outcome.
Simon Michaux's recently added comment to his brilliant lecture:
Data has been collected since this was uploaded and this presentation has evolved.  I now have data to show that the year 2005 was a turning point.  Oil supply became inelastic and at the same time Chinese demand for raw materials accelerated.  Metal prices (Au, Ag, Ni, Pb, Cu, Fe, Zn, etc) spiked and became very volatile.  The 2008 economic correction  of the GFC did not resolve these issues and return metal prices to the levels prior to 2005 nor did it create a new level of stability.  This means that the underlying issues were not addressed and market speculators were not the controlling force.

We are now 8-9 years into an era of industrial transformation.  I believe this is a signature for the start of transformation as a consequence of Peak Oil.  All of our resources are following this pattern.  Peak oil is certainly not the only problem we are faced with. Our financial and economic systems are far too fragile and disconnected from reality to engage in the required industrial reform.

There are some technological solutions which might help if applied correctly.  The real constraint is now time.  We are out of time.  We really need 10-20 years to manage the transition after the political will has been established.  These problems here now.  Current political leadership are engaging in squabbling over the dregs of what resources are left and maintaining the status quo.  We are using the last of the easy to get resources, to do the equivalent of straightening bananas.  All of this indifference does suggest a certain outcome.
Eivind Berge recommends Michaux's lecture:
Thanks for posting that, Øyvind. Simon Michaux has been a big influence on my thinking about peak oil and mining as well. His lecture on peak mining is a real eye-opener and highly recommended.

Did you dare to see Michaux's lecture? Or do you prefer to remain blissfully ignorant as long as possible?

Published at P2P-Foundation on Octobre 4, 2014.

A comment by Norman Pagett:
Noam Chomsky summed things up very well: Do you think anyone would care if the main export of Libya was asparagus?

WW2 was an energy war. The Germans and Japanese had no oil of their own, so had to grab somebody else's to drive their war machine. The USA was awash with the stuff, The losers were the ones who ran out of gas first.

We are now in WW3, again fighting over energy and the Arabs aren't stupid. They don't buy the idea that Christian oil accidentally got put under Muslim deserts, and so oil must continue to prime the pumps of western industry. 
They know full well that when the oil is gone, their guntrucks stop and they go back to goat herding and camel trading. So they are grabbing what they can, right now, in a (vain) attempt to hold onto what's left of their lifestyle, just as we are. 

Our politicians and economists convince us that we can have more, just as the imams convince their followers they can have more, if only warfare continues.

But as ive tried to point out in my book there really isn't any more. And Ive even been taken to task for offering no solutions. There are no solutions. We are conditioned to fight over energy sources until we reduce ourselves to a mean level where conflict becomes pointless and unsustainable. In the case of muslim ideology, this appears to be based somewhere in the 14th century.

Here in the developed west we are as yet only dimly aware that our 100 year cycle of constant growth is slipping away from us. We regard current outbreaks of conflict as a minornuisance in faraway places. Our supermarket shelves are still full, and pumps still dispense fuel so where's the problem?, 

The problem is of course that as resources slip into severe depletion, and become less available to everyone, resource wars will take many forms, in many different places..not just desert nations 5000 miles away. A century of constant growth, doubling every decade or so, means that no one is alive who knows differently. Not your problem?

Right now in the USA oil fracking is staving off reality for--what? Five years at most. The country produces 10mbd, but burns 17Mbd. And substiutes printed money to make up the difference. It takes 2500 wells in the Bakken to deliver 1 Mbd, the same even in Iraq only takes 50 wells. THAT is oil economics.

When fracked oil finally peters out, reality will kick in, and you will have resource wars literally on your doorstep. Forget about the Middle east. A fully armed population will not take kindly to being told that there is no more. When the fighting over what's left is over, we too will be left with the economics of the 14th century.


Popular posts from this blog

Paddehoa og plassen min

Kjære plassen min, kvalt du vart, lik ei paddehoe alle paddehannane kasta seg over i dammen om våren.
Dei ville alle bu ved dine grøne enger, då dei tykte det her var so vent og fredeleg. Men dei vørde deg ikkje, og no er du kvalt til daude.
Herr Fossemøllens augnestein stend utan låven sin, her gjeng ikkje lenger dyr og beitar i dine grøne enger. Berre grasklipparar beitar her no.
Dei elska deg til daude, og med deg i grava di tok du den rike
grendearven din.
No stend vi ribba attende.

Venter metankatastrofen oss?

I dag inneholder atmosfæren 5 gigatonn metan. Et estimat anslår at rundt 50 gigatonn metan kan være i ferd med å frigis i Arktis, dvs. en tidobling. Flere tusen gigatonn ligger lagret i den arktiske permafrosten, i den Øst-Sibirske arktiske havhylla alene ligger det 500 - 5000 gigatonn metan.

Metan er ved frigjøring mer enn 150 ganger sterkere som klimagass enn CO2, etter 20 år 86 ganger sterkere i gjennomsnitt, og etter 100 år 23 ganger sterkere. Dette fordi den blir til H2O og CO2.

Mennesket er et produkt av ilden, dette ser nå ut til å bli vår bane. Imens er det søndagsåpne butikker som debatteres, selvsagt en uting og et pådriv for konsumerismen, men allikevel et bevis på menneskets korte tidshorisont.

"Geoengineering" kan ikke hjelpe oss, det er langt mer fornuftig å lagre karbon i jordsmonnet. Det er 5-6 ganger mer karbon i jorda enn i atmosfæren og vegetasjonen sammenlagt. Her kan biokull (terra preta) spille en viktig rolle.

Biokull kan bli i jorda i flere hundre tu…

Hurdalsrosa på Toten

Austlandets perle
i dei djupe skogane
på hi sida av Totenåsen,
var raus då ho gav oss hurdalsrosa,
som her stend og raudner
over venleiken sin,
i veggen på våningshuset
til plassen min.

Kva skal vi med fjerne roser frå Nederland, når den venaste rosa i verda,
alt ved husveggen står? Ei våningshusrose var du, og er du, når eg syklar ikring, eg ser du prydar våningshusveggen, på mang ein staseleg storgardsbygning.

Hurdalsrosa vart like gjev
åt fattig som åt rik,
ho skil ikkje
på kven ho skjenkar
av venleiken sin.
I lag med deg,
sjølv ein husmannsplass,
rik vart.
Eit kjærleikshjarte er kvar ei rose
du oss skjenkar.
År etter år,
inga kulde eller tørke,
tek knekken på kjærleiken din,
du gamle hurdalsrosebusk,
ved gråsteinsmuren åt oldefaren min. Kan vi be om meir?