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Showing posts from April, 2015

Ettårsdagen for Praha - tur

I dag er det ett år siden vi landet i Praha, verdens vakreste storby med verdens hyggeligste mennesker og verdens beste øl. Alle var hyggelige, utrolig hyggelige!

All norsk urbanisme blir selvsagt meningsløst etter et opphold i Praha, omtrent som å erstatte italiensk kvalitetsvin med Coca Cola. Våre 11 dager i byen var av våre største opplevelser noensinne, også Rebecca elsket byen.

Jeg postet mange fine fotoreportasjer på min fotoblogg fra Praha, som dessverre ble ødelagt av Facebook. Lenket bildene fra Facebook til bloggen, men plutselig ødela de alle lenkene. Utrolig dårlig gjort.

Her er dog noen bilder i anledning dagen, behørig lastet opp til blogger.

Oslotur mandag 27. april 2015

It Will All be Gone!

Yesterday at a birthday party I did again try to air the view of Gail Tverberg that with the next financial crash it will all be gone. The reaction was as expected, wide open eyes and fierce denial. They didn't give me the opportunity to explain that Tverberg is the one who best understood and predicted the last financial crises, and so very likely could be the one who would best understand the next one.
It depends on how quickly the failure of banks brings the whole system down. I think the most likely scenario is that the next big crash is the last one. We had a big crash in 2008, and were temporarily saved from it. The next one seems likely to be much bigger, and thus to be much harder to avoid the consequences of.

My expectation is that oil prices will go lower than they are now, and that debt defaults will start hitting the system. Some of these defaults will relate to derivative bets gone wrong. This will start hitting in the next few months. We should be feeling the effect…

KV-kommentar om markedsøkonomi og landallmenninger

Kommentar til KV-artikkelen:

Sårbarhetens naturlov – matkultur er infrastruktur

Takk for fint innlegg med flere gode og talende liknelser!

Personlig må jeg innrømme at jeg har ingen tro på markedsøkonomien så lenge denne ledsages av teknologisk utvikling.

- Technological Progress in a Market Economy is Self-Terminating and Ends in Collapse:
a) Every increase in technological complexity tends also to increase the opportunities for externalizing the costs of economic activity;

b) Market forces make the externalization of costs mandatory rather than optional, since economic actors that fail to externalize costs will tend to be outcompeted by those that do;

c) In a market economy, as all economic actors attempt to externalize as many costs as possible, externalized costs will tend to be passed on preferentially and progressively to whole systems such as the economy, society, and the biosphere, which provide necessary support for economic activity but have …

Will the Next Big Crash be the Last One?

Introduction in Norwegian:

I en sammenheng forsøkte jeg å vise Tverbergs energigraf for å ha et bedre utgangspunkt til å forberede oss for framtida. Resultatet ble himling med øynene og hoderisting. Med en gang man nevner ordet kollaps mellom de komforme, kommer bildet av gale preppere opp på netthinnen.

Dessverre er Gail Tverberg alt annet enn en gal prepper. Hun var den i verden som best forutså og forstod finanskrisa av 2008, noe hun har fått kreditt for. Sannsynligheten for at hun som best forstod den forrige finanskrisa best vil forstå den neste, er stor. Dette innser også ledende professorer innen "peak-oil"-teori, en grunn til at hun nylig ble invitert til å forelese ved petroleumsuniversitetet i Beijing.

Dessverre ble mennesket evolvert i en uendelig verden, enhver som ikke tror på uendelig vekst i en endelig verden blir derfor definert som sprø.

Slutten på den industrielle sivilisasjon har mange fordeler. Vi redder klimaet, vi gjenvinner stillheten og mørket. Stjern…

The Corporation: Full Length Documentary

The part about the enclosure of the commons starts at 57:57. The Corporation is a 2003 Canadian documentary film written by Joel Bakan, and directed by Mark Achbar and Jennifer Abbott. The documentary is critical of the modern-day corporation, considering its legal status as a class of person and evaluating its behaviour towards society and the world at large as a psychiatrist might evaluate an ordinary person. This is explored through specific examples. The Corporation has been shown worldwide, on television, and via DVD, file sharing, and free download. Bakan wrote the book, The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power, during the filming of the documentary. The documentary shows the development of the contemporary business corporation, from a legal entity that originated as a government-chartered institution meant to effect specific public functions, to the rise of the modern commercial institution entitled to most of the legal rights of a person. One theme is its …

A New Career for the Future

Depending on exactly which old technologies you happen to adopt, and whether or not you have any talent for basement-workshop manufacture and the like, you may find yourself on the way to a viable new career as most other people will be losing their jobs—and their shirts. As the global economy comes unraveled and people in the United States lose their current access to shoddy imports from Third World sweatshops, there will be a demand for a wide range of tools and simple technologies that still make sense in a deindustrializing world. Those who already know how to use such technologies will be prepared to teach others how to use them; those who know how to repair, recondition, or manufacture those technologies will be prepared to barter, or to use whatever form of currency happens to replace today’s mostly hallucinatory forms of money, to good advantage. - JMG

Pengefølelsen slår nye rekorder!

Nordmenn ligger på topp i det meste. Hva kan nevnes er kaffedrikking, isspising, avislesing, sydenreiser, og ikke uventet ser det også ut til at vi ligger i topp på selvbedrag. Litt overraskende er dog omfanget av selvbedraget.

Her følger et utdrag fra en diskusjonstråd mellom undertegnede og energirealisten Eivind Berge:

Øyvind Holmstad said... Nå har de regnet ut at hver nordmann er verdt 120 millioner kroner!

- Hver nordmann verdt 120 millioner kroner:

Dette er helt sprøtt. Kollapset er rett rundt hjørnet, mens fremskrittsoptimismen sveller ut som ei nybakt bolle.

Har Gail rett kommer jo ikke folk til å skjønne noen ting. MONDAY, APRIL 20, 2015 3:22:00 PM  Eivind Berge said... "Ifølge notatet, utgjør humankapitalen, den neddiskonterte verdien av all fremtidig arbeidsinnsats, 81,3 prosent av Norges nasjonalformue. Oljeformuen står for bare 3,1 prosent, mens resten er verdien av realkapitalen og fin…

Bildeling i delesamfunnet

Uansett energiform er bevegelse av ett tonn bilmetall ikke bærekraftig. - Terje BongardThe cities will be part of the country; I shall live 30 miles from my office in one direction, under a pine tree; my secretary will live 30 miles away from it too, in the other direction, under another pine tree. We shall both have our own car. We shall use up tires, wear out road surfaces and gears, consume oil and gasoline. All of which will necessitate a great deal of work … enough for all.” - Le Corbusier, 1935 Jeg er en deler, en naturlig konsekvens av at jeg er en allmenninger. En deler deler sine erfaringer, sine ideer, sine åndsverk, sine ting, og ikke minst bilen. Ved å dele bilen kan vi redusere biltettheten til 1/13-del, eller med 92,3 prosent.

Bilringer er byenes fremtid

To Minimize the Influence of Cars is a Key Factor for Successful NeighborhoodsThe Problem of CarsKEY FEATURES OF NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE VIBRANT AND ALIVEVillage Towns: A Safe Place to Raise ChildrenDecember 28, …

Kallerud by Gjøvik

I have many professions, one of them is working as a photographer of Wikipedia. Mostly this is a nice job, but sometimes I've to document really dirty things. A long time I wanted to document Kallerud, an industrial and shopping area just before arriving the town of Gjøvik by Rv. 4 from the South. Here the land has completely been surrendered to ugliness and misery, where modernity shows its grimmest of faces. Today I just decided to jump into it, to get it overdone.

Writing this I still suffer of trauma from all this meaningless ugliness. Here's nothing to see but small scale crap and large scale crap, as Christopher Alexander would have put it. No God, no love, no life.

The only thing we see is the utterly degradation of humanity.

All the images can be seen at Wikimedia Commons here.

I'm sorry I had to show you this. But as a documentary photographer I'm obligated to document all aspects of life.

Please join the battle!

Teknologioptimistene møter seg selv i døra hele tida

Her er en interessant kommentar av Tverberg:
My view is that the luxury segment can’t hold on any longer than the rest. Nearly everything created today requires the use of computers, and computers require the use of nearly every element in the periodic table. Thus, we have to have extensive international trade to maintain the production of computers and thus luxury goods as well as other goods.

Dette er jo en viktig grunn til at vi ikke bare kan gå over til 3D-printere og "skrive" ut alt vi trenger i forskjellige karbonforbindelser. Selv om det skulle vise seg at man kan erstatte stål med nanokarbon etc, vil man fremdeles være like avhengig av computere, som igjen krever nær på hele det periodiske systemet, som igjen krever enorme mengder fossil energi for å utvinnes.

Så teknologioptimistene møter virkelig seg selv i døra hele tida.

Start i Russland

Sølvmynter = framtidens valuta

Folk jeg kjenner har begynt å samle gullmynter, men det ser ut til at sølvmynter er tingen:
(a) Get as much benefit of what you have now, as you can. Take a trip, or donate to charity, or buy things you really need.

(b) Diversify your investments. If things don’t collapse all at once, diversification protects you somewhat.

(c) Farmland or real estate might be helpful in some circumstances–knowing how to farm would be a requirement. You would also need luck with others (governments, those with more weapons) not taking the land, or the food you grow on the land, away from you.

(d) Silver coins might possibly work for trading for goods. I wouldn’t count on gold being worthwhile for trading for goods. The supposed value of gold is too high relative to most goods a person might want to trade for–what you will need is loaves of bread and clothing to wear. Gold is too high valued relative to these goods. - Gail Tverberg Dette er den typen råd DN burde begynne å gi nå. Håper de snart vil inns…