Friday, April 3, 2015

Nicole Foss: We Need Freedom of Action To Confront Peak Oil


Nicole Foss seems far more optimistic about what level of civilization we can retain after the collapse than Tverberg. I am not sure how realistic her advice is. Does it really make sense to insulate your house better or put solar panels on your roof?

But she is also clearly very insightful in some ways. That interview was from 2010, and a number of her predictions have now panned out, albeit a few years later than she thought. What she said about OPEC increasing production in a desperate attempt to keep up their income in response to crashing oil prices is exactly what has happened, and so is the strong dollar and general deflationary trends. The big credit crunch and stock market crash haven't happened yet, but probably will soon when the shale bubble bursts due to low oil prices. And then I think she will also be right about cash retaining its value as other financial instruments evaporate, at least for a little while. What can be salvaged beyond that is an open question.
The predictions of "The Limits to Growth"

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