Wednesday, September 30, 2015

"Peak-oilerne" tar feil!

Les kommentartråd her.
Herdal ser ut til å være en «peak-oiler». Men «peak-oilerne» tar feil. Som Gail skriver i denne kommentaren: http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/09/29/low-oil-prices-why-worry/#comment-68174
«I show both total energy and oil in my Figure 11. The increase in natural gas usage is actually lower than the increase in oil consumption. I found this hard to believe, because usually the switch goes the other way. 
How much oil and gas is left in the ground is in some sense irrelevant, as long as it is > 0. We can only extract fossil fuels as long as our systems stay in place. Then the rest of the fossil fuels stay in the ground forever. The belief that all of the fossil fuels can be burned is simply not true–we have to keep the whole system together. It is really a Liebig’s Law of the Minimum issue. I showed in my last post that we really need fuels that are equivalent to $20 per barrel oil or cheaper. This is probably equivalent to an EROEI of 50:1 or higher. All of the rest greatly increases debt ratios. In some sense, we really can’t get it out–we are just living on borrowed time with it. We can only use it if we keep pushing up our debt to GDP ratio. The question is when the whole system will “snap”. 
Spending a lot of time looking at how much fossil fuels are in the ground is another error “Peak Oil” folks have made. Just because we can see the fuel doesn’t mean that we can get it out. The economy may stop functioning before we ever get to it.» – Gail Tverberg
Herdal mener vi kan tappe ned olje- og gassreservene. Men slik er det ikke. Systemet forsvinner før vi kommer så langt. Med mindre vi klarer å produsere drivstoff lønnsomt til under 20 dollar per fat med en EROEI på 50+.

Hva som er i ferd med å skje er det kun noen få utvalgte her til lands som vil forstå. Herdal og Hansson i MDG er ikke blant dem. Steigan skriver ikke om dette. Bongard klarer ikke å se forskjellen på mennesker og andre dyr. Medias oppgave er å villede og ikke å opplyse, for å holde systemet sammen lengst mulig. Begynte de å sitere Tverberg ville folk få panikk og systemet kollapse raskere. Meg lytter ingen til, jeg er kun en bygdetulling fra Toten og derfor lett å avfeie. Uansett, anbefaler Tverbergs siste essay «Low Oil Prices – Why Worry?» på det varmeste!

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