Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Gail Tverberg's respons to my comment

The biologist Jared Diamond published in 2005 the book Collapse: How societies choose to fail or survive. He summarizes how native populations and cultures that have ‘advanced’ in technology, have, without exception, expanded above carrying boundaries, destroying their own foundation for life. And then they collapsed. There are no historical examples of native populations who cared about anything else than short sighted gain. Human cultures have in the past only been restricted by technological limitations in using up resources, not by their nobility. There is a clear boundary between those cultures who remained at a hunter/gatherer level, in which some still exist, and cultures which developed technology or grew their populations to change the ecosystems they depended upon. All the latter-mentioned cultures are gone, except for the one we live in today. The world’s earlier cultures, like ours today, are a history of how people used all available means to fight for, exploit and deplete the ecosystems they lived in. Regardless of culture, people of all eras struggled and fought for food, place, benefits and values that are connected to the two powers of selection: To get what’s needed to secure nurturing for children and family (natural selection), and to become an attractive partner (sexual selection).” — The Biological Human Being, by Terje Bongard and Eivin Røskaft, page 239
As I have commented quite a few times, the way natural selection “works” is for all species (including humans) to produce far more offspring than needed to replace themselves. Natural selection, if allowed to proceed naturally (no medical care, no coats to keep warm, many even no cooked food) then assures that the best adapted survive.

Humans has adapted to requiring fuel of some sort to cook their food. It is also helpful in making clothes, keeping warm, boiling water to make it better to drink, helping in catching animals for food, and making better tools. We have used the fuel we have become adapted to for health care, so as to keep the less well adapted alive. We also provide monetary support for people who are unable to work. All of this works at counter-purposes to natural selection.

If there are survivors, we are destined to relive the same story, but with a much lower cap on fuel use.
It's important to note that Tverberg writes "if there are survivors". It's not sure there will be survivors, that serious is the situation. The turning point is now, from 2016 and forward the decline will gather speed. It's of course sad to know that my beloved daughters probably will starve to death, but as I'll soon move back to the countryside I can might give them an upper hand. I will do my best to make them among the survivors, whatever efforts there will be.

I still want to mention that the Archdruid, JMG, thinks the collapse will last another 2-300 years, and with survivors. But as he's a male he's full of hubris, and cannot be trusted like a female with equal intelligence and knowledge.

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