Det hele kommer an på hvor flinke vi er til å organisere oss på en slik måte at stat, finansystemer og kapitaleiere blir mer og mer irrelevant.Dette har du helt rett i! Derfor var 2014 et katastrofeår, hvor MEDOSS ble vraket samtidig som vi nådde "peak finance"!
Dessverre er grunnlaget for å foreslå bærekraftige samfunn basert på å forstå de medfødte følelsenes bruk og formål, og deres plassering i hjernen. Når dette fornektes blir det bare synsinger igjen. - Terje BongardUten InnGruppe-Demokratiet (IGD) har vi ikke nubbetjangs til å opprettholde en industriell sivilisasjon. Nå, etter "peak finance", renner tida raskt ut for oss. "Peak finance" henger sammen med "diminishing returns", og faktisk må vi tilbake til slutten av steinalderen for å finne en tilsvarende situasjon for menneskeheten. Gail Tverberg sier i kommentarfeltet til sitt siste innlegg, "Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High":
The long term energy share of GDP has been going down and down. In my view, what is happening is that we have been getting more and more efficient at obtaining energy products over time, so that we have been able to get ever larger quantities of energy products with ever-smaller shares of GDP. Recently this has turned around, and this is very bad for the economy, because now we are getting less efficient at obtaining energy products. The economy needs a rising total quantity of supplemental energy products to leverage human labor. As we become less efficient at obtaining these products, we have a huge problem getting enough of them.
The stone age ended because of too many people, and diminishing returns with respect to using hunting and gathering to get enough food for everyone. They were also running short of easy to obtain stones of the best types, such as flints and obsidian. They no doubt had diminishing returns there as well.
We are running into diminishing returns with respect to obtaining oil, as again have too many people for resources. The Sheik probably was right, at least with respect to the oil being left in the ground.Steinaldermenneskene kunne transformere seg over i jordbrukssamfunnet da de var i en tilsvarende situasjon. Det kan ikke vi. Fornybarsamfunnet trenger store mengder fossil energi for å implementeres, men vi er for seint ute med dette og det er uansett ikke nok alene. Vi må avskaffe veksten og implementere et system hvor vi kan leve med "diminshing returns", dvs. at vi hele tida blir fattigere. Dette kan kun gjøres ved at vi tar total kontroll over økonomien gjennom IGD, hvor inngruppa og ikke pengene er limet som holder samfunnet sammen.
Situasjonen er veldig alvorlig nå, all eksisterende økonomisk teori er irrelevant, fordi den ble utviklet før "peak finance" og "diminishing returns" ble en realitet. Nå er dette en realitet. Flaskehalsene tettes raskt til og deretter rakner systemet og faller fra hverandre.
Jeg vil allikevel holde frem med å pushe IGD. Likesom profeten Jeremia valgte å plante et tre da ulykken var et faktum og hans folk ble ført i lenker til Babylon.
To relevante kommentarer av Eivind Berge:
Charles, I don't think you understand how serious this is. If Gail is right, using less oil and keeping business as usual is not an option. The collapse will not be pleasant, except initially when we can gloat over the downfall of our enemies. Then we shall quickly starve and die ourselves. Imagine having no money because the banks collapsed first, then no electricity and no food. Now Gail is saying that oil prices need to bounce to $130 per barrel this year if we are going to avoid this scenario:
And that is highly unlikely. The economy cannot tolerate anywhere near $130 per barrel, so we won't get it. Instead we get a financial crisis, which will drive prices further down. People will lose their jobs in large numbers, leading to less demand and even lower prices. Your expectation of commodity prices rising sharply can't happen without economic growth, and economic growth can't happen without more oil. Even a small drop in oil production -- which is now assured because of spending cuts in the oil industry -- will lead to a huge financial crisis, and the downturn will feed on itself from there, leading to collapse.
"Has there really been a "big crash" after (or before) October 1929?"
The financial crisis of 2008 was a big crash that came really close to triggering collapse, but the central banks saved us just in time. They are running out of effective remedies now, however. There is only so much you can accomplish with quantitative easing and ultra-low interest rates, since none of this produces any real resources. And unlike the Great Depression, there are no more high-quality natural resources to exploit to get us out of the next one. Our dependence on advanced technology makes it even worse, since our lifestyles require a networked global economy that local communities have no hope of replicating after the system has collapsed. So we will fall very far back indeed.
"Can we be (reasonably) sure that there ever will be a "big crash" again?"
We are doing the same things now that people did before previous crashes; acting like the economy can grow forever and planning everything around that expectation. This clearly does not work in a finite world, and now we are closer to limits than ever, which means the big crash is also getting more likely every day. Something like 24 civilizations have collapsed before us, so why should we be any different? Especially since we don't seem to have learned anything from past collapses and there is no serious plan to implement any kind of managed degrowth.